2018年美赛E题M奖论文（一等奖）

2018年美赛E题M奖论文（一等奖）
Badclimatechangemaygreatlyincreasethefragilityofthecountry.Howtoevaluatetheimpactofclimatechangeandmitigatetheimpactofclimatechangehasbecomeanurgentproblem.Withregardtotaskone,adataenvelopmentanalysis(DEA)modelisestablishedtogetthecountry'sfragility.Firstofall,weselected4climatefactorsasinputindicatorsand5outputindicators.Then,weusetheentropymethodtodeterminetheweightandthenthenationalvulnerabilityisdivided.Atthesametime,wegettheconclusionthattemperatureaffectsGDPandthetimesofarmedconflictdirectlyandaffectsthefragilityindirectly.Inviewoftasktwo,wechooseSomaliaasanobjectofstudy.First,alltheindexesaredividedinto5levelsbythemethodofclusteranalysis.Second,weselect10countriesincludingSomalia,tosolvethedecisionunitmatrix.Then,usingthemodeloftheproblemone,itisfoundthattheincreaseintemperatureandrainfallwillcausethenationalvulnerabilitytoriseanddecrease,respectively.Finally,weassign4climateindicatorsto0ofthedecisionunits,anddrawtheconclusionthatnationalvulnerabilitywillbereducedwithouttheimpactofclimatefactors.Whenitcomestotaskthree,weusetheroughsettheorytoreducetheoutputindextothenumberofarmedconflicts.Then,weusetheBPneuralnetworkmodeltopredicttheconclusion:Thereisasignificantincreaseinfragilityincasesofmuchmorearmedconflictandabnormaltemperature.Whentheaverageannualarmedconflictiscertain,thenationalvulnerabilityindexwillfaceanincreasingturningpointatthetemperatureof10.01andtherainfallof1823mm.Astotaskfour,threepoliciesonenergyreductionandemissionreductionissuedbythegovernmenthavebeenselected,andamodelofcarboncycleisestablished.TakingChinaasanexample,wecalculatetheextentofthechangeoftheaveragetemperaturebyreducingthecarbondioxideemiss